Islamabad, Pakistan – A latest lethal suicide assault on a army publish in northwest Pakistan has raised fears of the return of armed revolt within the nation’s tribal areas which have seen a dramatic rise in armed assaults this 12 months.
A little bit-known group, Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), claimed the December 12 bombing in Dera Ismail Khan district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan. At the very least 23 troopers have been killed and one other 34 injured within the automobile bomb assault.
The assaults by the TJP have introduced again reminiscences of the sequence of lethal assaults carried out by armed teams led by the Pakistan Taliban, identified by the acronym TTP, in late 2000.
However why have assaults on safety forces elevated and the way are the Pakistani authorities and the army planning to deal with it?
What explains the surge within the assaults?
The primary 11 months of the 12 months witnessed 664 assaults of various nature and dimension throughout the nation, a rise of 67 p.c from the corresponding period in 2022, in accordance with the Pakistan Institute for Battle and Safety Research (PICSS), an Islamabad-based analysis organisation.
However the bulk of the assaults have focused two provinces – Khyber Pakhtunkhwa within the northwest and Balochistan within the southwest.
Nearly 93 p.c of the full assaults came about in these two provinces, with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa the worst affected province, witnessing 416 assaults since November 2022 when the TTP walked out of the ceasefire with the federal government.
Pakistan Taliban’s ideology is aligned with the Taliban in Afghanistan, which at present guidelines the war-torn nation. Nonetheless, the teams have totally different targets they usually function independently.
In January, not less than 100 individuals, largely policemen, have been killed within the worst assault of the 12 months, when a suicide bomber blew himself up in a mosque in Peshawar, the capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The assault was claimed by a TTP splinter group, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar.
The genesis for the spike within the violence, analysts say, may very well be traced again to the unilateral choice by the Pakistan Taliban to end the ceasefire last year. The armed group has asserted that its assaults have been in response to the renewed army operations within the area.
Amongst their predominant calls for embody the discharge of its members and the reversal of the merger of the tribal area with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. A stricter imposition of Islamic legal guidelines can be one of many calls for.
The Pakistani military has performed a number of operations to eradicate the group since 2002 however struggled to attain its objective as fighters have used the porous border to search out protected haven in Afghanistan.
Since its founding in 2007, the TTP has focused each civilians in addition to legislation enforcement personnel, leading to 1000’s of deaths. Their deadliest assault got here in December 2014, once they focused the Army Public School (APS) in Peshawar, killing greater than 130 college students.
The TTP additionally claimed accountability for taking pictures Malala Yousafzai in 2012. Yousafzai went on to win the Noble Prize for Peace in 2015 and is at present a globally famend women’ schooling activist.
Probably the most disconcerting side of TJP lies in its implementation of suicide assaults.
The group stays banned in Pakistan and has been designated a “terrorist” group by the US. Fashioned to unify like-minded teams within the area, the TTP stepped up assaults in response to Pakistani army operations launched to flush out overseas fighters fleeing the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.
In response to the APS assault, the Pakistani army launched a large-scale army operation, titled Zarb-e-Azb, towards the armed teams. Whereas the Pakistani military claimed it was capable of obtain its goal, the army operation was harshly criticised by the native inhabitants in addition to human rights organisations.
The army was accused of adopting scorched earth ways and finishing up enforced disappearances of people accused of getting hyperlinks with the TTP. A lot of these arrested have been tried in a army court docket, which is taken into account opposite to worldwide legislation.
Which teams have sought to say accountability for the latest assaults?
With the return of the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan in August 2021, which has had historic hyperlinks with the Pakistani safety institution, it was believed that managing the TTP would develop into simpler.
A month after the Taliban took over Kabul, it helped facilitate the assembly between the Pakistani army with the TTP for each side to interact in a ceasefire speak, a choice endorsed and pushed by Imran Khan, Pakistan’s then-prime minister.
Subsequently, over the subsequent few months, a tentative ceasefire led to the discharge of senior TTP leaders imprisoned by Pakistan. It additionally facilitated the resettlement of lots of of TTP fighters and their households again to Pakistan. A few of their leaders had been launched as a part of peace offers with earlier Pakistani governments.
Nonetheless, low-scale skirmishes between the 2 sides continued properly into 2022, with each side accusing one another of violating the settlement.
Regardless of repeated conferences, in Pakistan and Afghanistan, the rising mistrust between the 2 sides elevated. The removing of Khan as prime minister in April 2022, adopted by the retirement of military chief Normal Qamar Javed Bajwa in November 2022, didn’t assist the trigger. The TTP introduced a unilateral finish to the ceasefire days after Bajwa retired.
The emergence of an obscure TJP, believed to be affiliated with the TTP, has additional raised considerations amongst policymakers. TJP has been behind not less than seven main assaults this 12 months, together with the most recent one in Dera Ismail Khan.
The group focused a Pakistani Air Drive airbase in Mianwali metropolis in November and in one other assault this 12 months in Zhob metropolis of Balochistan it killed not less than 14 military personnel.
In keeping with researchers who research totally different armed teams in Pakistan and Afghanistan, TJP stays an “enigmatic organisation”.
The group, which has carried out a number of assaults this 12 months, is shrouded in thriller relating to its management, members, and places. The primary supply of details about the TJP is derived from its media releases. The group claims it was fashioned to “wage jihad towards Pakistan with the goal of reworking the nation into an Islamic state”.
Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based researcher on armed teams in South and Central Asia, mentioned the TTP formally recognised TJP as a fellow armed organisation in July 2023. Pakistani authorities additionally assert that TJP is linked to TTP.
“Nonetheless, as of now, there’s a lack of concrete proof to substantiate any clandestine connections between the 2 teams,” Sayed advised Al Jazeera.
Probably the most disconcerting side of TJP, he mentioned, lies in its implementation of suicide assaults.
“Within the assaults claimed by the TJP, a gaggle of 4 to seven suicide bombers conduct assaults on safety drive camps underneath the quilt of darkness. This technique has propelled the battle between militants and safety forces in Pakistan to an exceptionally damaging degree,” Sayed added.
Two of essentially the most violent assaults this 12 months have been carried out by the regional affiliate of ISIL (ISIS), the Islamic State in Khorasan Province or ISKP (ISIS-Okay). In July, it focused a political rally in Bajaur, a tribal district neighbouring Afghanistan, killing greater than 60 individuals. It was additionally behind a serious blast in Mastung city of Balochistan in September that killed greater than 50 individuals.
Whereas the ISKP selected to focus on civilians within the few assaults it performed, the TTP and the TJP have singled out safety personnel.
Abdul Basit, a analysis fellow at S Rajaratnam Faculty of Worldwide Research in Singapore, mentioned the tactic of focusing on legislation enforcement personnel labored on a number of ranges, because it helped demoralise the forces, in addition to assist create terror and air of insecurity.
Why has Pakistan been unable to regulate the rise in violence?
For a lot of counterterrorism analysts and observers of the violence within the area, one of many key failings of the Pakistani authorities was its lack of ability to formulate a “coherent and cogent” coverage in the direction of Afghanistan, which they imagine has led to the present state of affairs.
Elaborating on this, Basit mentioned the Pakistani military’s technique was based mostly on “assumptions and hope” that after the Kabul takeover by the Taliban, it could be capable of management the TTP from perpetrating its assaults in Pakistan.
Basit mentioned essentially, the mix of getting counterproductive Afghan insurance policies in addition to the shortcoming to construct counterterrorism capability, the federal government was unable to organize itself for the battle it’s confronted with now.
“Pakistan spent lots of time searching for peace talks, however … it was not proactive in eliminating the risk. However with ceasefire ending, Pakistan is in firefighting mode,” he mentioned.
“Now, the most effective they’ll hope for is injury limitation.”
In counterterrorism, public assist is crucial however within the areas which have seen lengthy bouts of struggle, resembling right here in Pakistan, the sentiment is hostile in the direction of each the army in addition to the insurgent fighters
The peace talks Basit is referring to was endorsed by the Pakistani authorities underneath former Prime Minister Khan in late 2021, when the army engaged with the TTP. These talks have been facilitated by the Afghan Taliban. The TTP demanded the reversal of the merger of tribal districts in addition to the imposition of its interpretation of Islamic legislation. However each calls for have been rejected by the then authorities.
The Pakistani facet urged for the disbanding of the armed group, a requirement which was by no means met.
Khan was a vocal opponent of the US-led drone strikes focusing on TTP fighters in Pakistan’s tribal area bordering Afghanistan, as these assaults collaterally precipitated lack of civilian lives.
Basit, the Singapore-based professional, mentioned the present state of affairs, which sees nearly day by day skirmishes between Pakistani troops and TTP fighters, doesn’t permit for any large-scale operation, for which he mentioned the federal government lacks the capability in addition to the general public goodwill. The researcher mentioned the resettlement of TTP in Pakistan in early 2022 was seen as a really unpopular choice, leading to public protests.
“In counterterrorism, public assist is crucial however within the areas which have seen lengthy bouts of struggle, resembling right here in Pakistan, the sentiment is hostile in the direction of each the army in addition to the insurgent fighters,” Basit mentioned.
Pakistan up to now has engaged in dialogue with the fighter group on quite a few events, with not less than 5 main peace agreements between 2007 and 2014, none of which lasted quite a lot of months.
The Pakistani army launched a number of operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and tribal areas towards the TTP throughout the identical interval.
With the federal government having tried each army operations in addition to dialogues, Amina Khan, director of the Centre for Afghanistan, Center East & Africa (CAMEA) on the Institute of Strategic Research (ISSI) in Islamabad, concurs with Basit on the purpose that the federal government by no means had readability on the way it wished to strategy its coverage towards the TTP.
“We have no idea whether or not Pakistan needs to interact with them in a dialogue, or to begin a kinetic operation towards them,” she advised Al Jazeera, including that there’s a lack of settlement amongst stakeholders within the nation on the difficulty.
What choices does Pakistan have now?
Senior Pakistani civilian and army leaderships have performed a number of high-level conferences with their Afghan counterparts in Islamabad and Kabul this 12 months.
Pakistan has repeatedly alleged that Afghan soil is getting used to harbour fighters, who perform cross-border assaults, a cost the Taliban vehemently denies. After the Dera Ismail Khan assault, Zabihullah Mujahid, the spokesperson for the interim authorities, repeated the defence, saying there isn’t any risk emanating from Afghan soil to any of its neighbours.
“Each incident in Pakistan shouldn’t be linked to Afghanistan. This incident [Dera Ismail Khan attack] occurred lots of of kilometres away from our nation. There are safety forces and intelligence there [in Pakistan], and they need to be cautious about their duties,” Mujahid mentioned final week.
Pakistani officers on quite a few events this 12 months additionally threatened to conduct cross-border assaults on TTP hideouts in Afghanistan. Nonetheless, no assaults have been confirmed from both Pakistan or the Taliban authorities.
Sayed, the Sweden-based scholar, mentioned the Taliban views the rising assaults by fighters in Pakistan as an inner matter, attributing it to Pakistan’s insurance policies ensuing from its involvement within the so-called “warfare on terror” led by the US.
Basit, the researcher, mentioned “selecting bravado” could be a incorrect lesson from the rising violence within the nation, and waging cross-border assaults in Afghanistan could be a nasty thought.
He, nevertheless, supported the concept of conducting focused operations inside Pakistan.
“You have to blunt the sharp fringe of the knife, at first, for which you will have to make use of drive. Nonetheless, precedence needs to be centered on inner points and to dismantle the community of those fighters within the nation. The method have to be about containment, downgrading, after which eliminating,” Basit mentioned.
Nonetheless, Khan, the director at ISSI, mentioned she was firmly of the opinion that the avenues for dialogue should stay open.
“I really feel that dialogue is important, and it should proceed,” she mentioned.
