We don’t have a crystal ball, however we comply with the automotive business carefully. In any case, it’s our job.
Consequently, we are able to see the route automobile corporations and markets are taking – although there’s at all times the chance for a shock.
Right here we share a few of our predictions for the brand new 12 months.
Anthony Crawford
Sure, the Chinese language are right here and so they’re going to be bringing a lot of EVs the like of which the world has by no means seen. Its akin to an industrial revolution on a scale now we have not seen for many years or extra.
Not solely have they got science-fiction ranges of expertise on board, however they’re additionally priced tens of 1000’s of {dollars} lower than the equal car from the legacy manufacturers.
Dynamically, although, they’re not fairly on the identical degree because the Europeans, however in case you have a look at what Hyundai has achieved with its efficiency N model is only a few quick years, it gained’t be lengthy earlier than Chinese language manufacturers are the function merchandise on F1’s Drive to Survive.
The large query is, although, will among the legacy manufacturers lastly fold below the onslaught of Chinese language and Korean automobile manufacturers and the velocity at which they’re shifting?
Paul Maric
Automotive gross sales will rebound as inflation softens, however the gloss is more likely to put on off surging EV demand – not less than till costs and certainty round resale settles.
Resale and depreciation are each factors of concern raised by the likes of Hertz and Sixt, who depend on regular and predictable resale values.
We might see this as an entry level for additional domination of Chinese language manufacturers and additional gross sales declines for manufacturers like Polestar, which fail to supply sufficient incentive on worth and shopper curiosity to generate gross sales.
Scott Collie
Issues are going to get a lot, a lot more durable for carmakers and sellers in 2024.
Each model we’ve spoken to not too long ago has stated the most recent VFACTS deliveries data are usually not consultant of present demand, and as a substitute are down to provide lastly arriving to fulfil a large backlog of latest automobile orders from the final two or three years.
In response to the executives we’ve spoken to, order cancellation charges are on the rise. Generally, that’s right down to folks ordering multiple automobile and cancelling their “backup” choices when one in all their potential new vehicles lastly lands. Others, it’s right down to rising rates of interest and the cost-of-living squeeze. Both approach, it’ll result in decrease supply totals on the VFACTS gross sales charts.
The excellent news? Which means offers are lastly coming again for brand new automobile consumers. Slowing orders and robust provide imply sellers are going to be holding inventory for the primary time since about 2020, which can see the return of reductions, drive-away offers, and sweeteners like free servicing to entice potential patrons.
Jade Credentino
Chinese language electrical automobile manufacturers will proceed to dominate our native market. The expertise accessible in China and all over the world is continually bettering.
Some manufacturers have been in a position to supply extremely technologically superior merchandise at a aggressive worth. There’s no query that whereas there are some customers in Australia who swear to by no means buy a Chinese language car, some don’t have any selection due to the elevated price of dwelling.
Chinese language manufacturers are always coming to Australia and difficult legacy manufacturers. Particularly, BYD and MG wish to dominate our native market within the coming years and with aggressive pricing, no inventory shortages and constant advertising and marketing they may proceed to develop.
James Wong
Hyundai will problem Mazda for 2nd place within the gross sales standings.
After a few years falling off the boil, it appears Hyundai is de facto going arduous in Australia and with some large launches in 2024 the Korean model may very well be snapping at Mazda’s heels for silver within the Australian market.
The mid-sized Tucson SUV has seen good progress this 12 months regardless of not providing an electrified possibility – and that’s going to vary subsequent 12 months when the facelifted vary ushers within the Tucson Hybrid to tackle the top-selling and supply-stricken Toyota RAV4 Hybrid.
There’s additionally the distinctive new Santa Fe on the best way, which can launch solely with hybrid at launch and sure add a robust turbo petrol possibility as nicely. With extra space and electrification, it ought to be a greater rival for the associated Kia Sorento on the gross sales charts in 2024.
A full 12 months of the brand new i30 Sedan Hybrid might be a superb indication of whether or not Hyundai can compete with the Toyota Corolla, and the revamped i30 Hatch will carry mild-hybrid energy courtesy of its European manufacturing change too. There’s loads happening in key quantity segments.
In comparison with sister model Kia, Hyundai has proven it could actually get higher provide and extra range in its mannequin ranges, significantly its hybrid and battery-electric automobiles. If it could actually proceed this shifting ahead, I can see Hyundai actually placing strain on the opposite top-selling manufacturers. Time will inform…
Jack Fast
I do know that I’m not alone in anticipating this however I predict the Chinese language carmakers will proceed to dominate the Australian new automobile gross sales charts.
Take BYD for instance, which already has the Atto 3, Dolphin and Seal. The corporate has already confirmed it’s introducing two plug-in hybrid automobiles regionally throughout 2024, and I’m actually to see how they’re acquired.
As well as, there are such a lot of totally different Chinese language manufacturers which might be presently hinting at promoting vehicles in Australia within the close to future. It actually is an thrilling time!
William Stopford
Chinese language manufacturers will proceed to develop.
Okay, so I’m not likely going out on a limb by saying that. We’ve seen the meteoric rise of MG, adopted not far behind by GWM and LDV.
The Chinese language automobile business has matured enormously from the times the place it was peddling recycled Daihatsu Charades and knockoff Isuzus, and Chinese language automobile patrons have come to count on a excessive degree of security and comfort expertise in addition to an growing diploma of electrification. A few duds apart, we’ve seen the array of Chinese language vehicles offered right here in flip turn out to be more and more refined.
And but I used to be stunned to see simply how massively BYD grew right here in such a brief area of time. This was a model utterly unfamiliar to most Australian patrons, and it received off to a rocky begin too, and but it’s now Australia’s second best-selling electrical car model.
Then there was Chery. I took an excellent dimmer view of that model at first, as a result of though it did have some identify recognition right here, little of it was good. Its final crack at our market virtually a decade in the past noticed it supply low-tech, cut price basement fashions, one in all which was in outdated Chinese language automobile vogue a blatant knockoff of one other car. Its gross sales have been woeful, and it disappeared after only a few years.
Absolutely that might have corroded any potential goodwill from Australian patrons with that stint right here. However no! The Omoda 5 is already outselling phase stalwarts, and its Tiggo 7 Pro could nicely do the identical. Once more, there’s a relatively low worth working in Chery automobiles’ favour, however however the corporate is providing an abundance of tech and five-star security rankings.
Chery has additionally found out the significance of a primary impression, and its automobiles main on showroom attraction even when they will’t match the Japanese and Koreans when it comes to dynamics. Give them time, although – the Chinese language carmakers have proved fast learners. Bear in mind, we Australians laughed at Japanese and Korean vehicles again within the day, too.
So, if Chery – not one of many Chinese language Large 4, and with a darkish previous in Australia – can get off to a powerful begin, it appears like Australia is ripe for the selecting by Chinese language manufacturers. We already know JAC and GAC Aion plan to return right here, and I believe there might be loads extra to return.
