New Delhi, India — Over the weekend, a preferred joke on Indian social media featured Nitish Kumar, the 72-year-old nine-time chief minister of the east Indian state of Bihar.
Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) occasion, or simply JD(U), had been a part of the INDIA opposition bloc – a gaggle of greater than two dozen political outfits that hopes to tackle the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Celebration (BJP) in nationwide elections between March and Could.
However on Sunday, he broke away and as a substitute joined fingers with the Nationwide Democratic Alliance (NDA), a coalition of events led by the BJP. He resigned as chief minister, then was sworn in once more, this time together with his new companions — all inside hours.
The joke (when translated) learn: “Nitish Kumar is the one chief minister, who whereas being chief minister, resigns as chief minister in order that he can stay chief minister.”
The BJP and its allies may properly be laughing. Two months earlier than practically a billion Indians vote to elect their subsequent authorities, Kumar’s exit from the INDIA alliance serves as a blow to the opposition’s possibilities of difficult Modi, who’s aiming for a 3rd time period as prime minister. It additionally reveals deeper fissures within the opposition alliance.
Additionally final week, Mamata Banerjee, the chief minister of the neighbouring state of West Bengal and chief of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) occasion, pulled out of the alliance, which is led by India’s principal opposition occasion, the Congress. Aside from the Congress, the alliance primarily consists of regional, state-specific events.
Each Banerjee and Kumar cited rifts with the Congress for his or her exit from the alliance. The primary bone of rivalry: who will get to contest how lots of the 543 parliamentary seats within the nation.
Congress vs regional events
The INDIA bloc is hoping to leverage India’s first-past-the-post electoral system by fielding one joint opposition candidate towards the BJP and NDA in all parliamentary constituencies. Such a transfer, opposition events argue, would be certain that the anti-BJP votes are consolidated and never divided amongst numerous opposition gamers.
However agreeing on consensus candidates is simpler stated than completed.
“The costs all of the regional events are making is that Congress is attempting to place loads of strain on them and demanding a bigger variety of seats than they need to get,” Sanjay Kumar, political analyst and psephologist, informed Al Jazeera.
That assertion was corroborated by KC Tyagi, common secretary of JD(U). Talking to Al Jazeera, he stated the Congress was eager on occupying political area however didn’t need to cede area to regional events.
“Within the states the place Congress is powerful, they don’t seem to be parting with even one seat. After which within the states the place regional events are robust, they need a disproportionate variety of seats,” stated Tyagi. “It’s not simply us however all constituents of the alliance have been uncomfortable with them.”
Equally, TMC’s Banerjee, whereas saying her determination to interrupt away from the alliance, cited a failure in seat-sharing talks with the Congress as one of many causes for going into the polls solo.
What has additionally irked the TMC and the JD(U) is that Rahul Gandhi, a Congress parliamentarian and scion of the Gandhi household that has headed the occasion for many years, has launched into a journey from the east to the west of the nation, with out adequately consulting them.
The journey known as the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, which loosely interprets into Uniting India by Justice March, a sequel to Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra final yr the place he walked greater than 4,000km (2,485 miles) from the south to the north of India.
Each Banerjee and Nitish Kumar stated they weren’t requested in regards to the route of the yatra that goes by the states they rule. The JD(U) additional stated that as a substitute of a Congress programme – which solely builds Gandhi’s picture – the occasion ought to have organised a nationwide programme underneath the INDIA banner.
The constituents of the alliance additionally accuse the Congress of delaying seat-sharing talks. Over the past yr, the Congress received provincial elections within the essential southern state of Karnataka and within the hilly northern state of Himachal Pradesh. Whereas this offered the occasion (and India’s opposition) with some momentum towards Modi, losses within the three essential north Indian states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in December got here as a blow for the Congress.
Banerjee and Kumar have stated the Congress postponed seat-sharing talks within the hope of profitable these three states the place it was in a one-on-one contest with the BJP. A win in these states would have put the Congress in a greater bargaining place within the alliance.
INDIA vs INDIA
The alliance additionally faces a problem in states like Punjab and Kerala, the place INDIA companions are the primary rivals and the BJP has a negligible presence.
In Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), an INDIA constituent, is the governing occasion and the Congress is the primary opposition occasion. The AAP additionally runs the federal government within the nationwide capital territory of Delhi.
Equally, in Kerala, the Left Entrance guidelines the state, whereas the Congress is in opposition.
Whereas Banerjee and Kumar have been making their exits final week, the AAP chief minister of Punjab, Bhagwant Mann, introduced that his occasion will go solo within the state and won’t ally with the Congress.
Formally, nonetheless, the AAP says that whereas seat negotiations in Punjab are a piece in progress, it has reached a preliminary understanding with the Congress in just a few different states, together with Delhi.
“Now we have had two conferences with the Congress which have been attended by their senior leaders. We had a really constructive dialogue with them and had discussions on among the states,” Saurabh Bharadwaj, an AAP spokesperson and legislator in Delhi, informed Al Jazeera. “We’ll quickly shut the dialogue.”
“With respect to Punjab, our state unit just isn’t very eager to have an alliance. However we now have not taken our closing name but”, he added.
Negotiating the pursuits of the state models with that of the central occasion management in Delhi is a problem that the Congress and different regional events within the alliance face.
There are some states, nonetheless, the place seat-sharing talks are making headway. Akhilesh Yadav, the chief of the Samajwadi Celebration (SP), the primary opposition occasion within the BJP-ruled state of Uttar Pradesh, introduced that he could be keen to let the Congress battle in 11 out of the 80 parliamentary seats within the state.
SP spokesperson Ashutosh Verma informed Al Jazeera that as per the principles of the alliance, the INDIA accomplice with the best affect in a state could be making the choices on seat-sharing in that state.
Verma additionally identified that in states like Punjab the place INDIA companions are in each first and second place, the alliance was planning to place up a “tactical battle”.
“In one of many conferences of the alliance, it was determined that within the states of Punjab and Kerala [election] could be fought in an analogous method. These are the states the place the BJP is both at quantity three or quantity 4. In these states, we don’t need to make BJP the principal opposition. That’s our technique,” stated Verma.
‘Unhealthy optics’
Al Jazeera reached out to the Congress for its touch upon the allegations made by its INDIA companions however had not obtained a response but.
Addressing a information convention on Saturday, Congress common secretary Jairam Ramesh conceded that Banerjee and Kumar’s exits have been unhealthy optics for INDIA.
“The scenario may very well be higher … The optics … individuals are watching. Information is coming in that one occasion is leaving and that it’s going to type a authorities with the BJP, that one other occasion is sad with us … it doesn’t look good. It’s not good for INDIA’s picture,” stated Ramesh.
He, nonetheless, added that the occasion had not given up hope on the alliance.
Sanjay Kumar, the political analyst, stated the BJP would achieve from the cut up within the alliance. In Bihar, the JD(U)-led authorities had carried out a statewide caste census that the INDIA alliance had hoped to pitch as an election plank, in impact promising the prospect of enhanced affirmative motion for individuals belonging to a number of decrease castes, collectively referred to as the OBC (different backward class).
“The BJP stands to achieve from the brand new shift that Nitish Kumar has made. It will likely be a lot simpler for the BJP to mobilise the OBC votes now in comparison with the previous,” he stated. “Nitish Kumar was the chief who was taking the credit score for getting the caste census carried out. Now that he has switched sides, the BJP can declare that credit score,” he added.
In West Bengal, Kumar stated, a three-way contest between the TMC, the Congress-Left alliance and the BJP will assist Modi’s occasion.
The BJP, nonetheless, has dismissed the prospects of the opposition alliance — with or with out the fissures inside it.
“We by no means took this alliance severely,” stated RP Singh, a spokesperson for the BJP. He referred to how the occasion had received 303 seats out of 543 within the 2019 parliamentary elections. This time, he stated, the occasion is aiming for 350 seats.
And whereas the elections is perhaps nearing now, the BJP, he stated, had been “engaged on this for 2 years”.
“Alliance or no alliance, it doesn’t have an effect on the BJP.”